Experts Speculate Collapse of Communist China
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In recent years, many protests have occurred in China.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is
facing many internal and external crises.
Is time up for the CCP, and what does this mean?
This question has become a hot topic for people inside
and outside China including high-levels of the CCP.
The Chinese version of Deutsche Welle cited
Professor Pei Minxin, Claremont Mckenna College.
Pei speculates that in the next 10 to 15 years, there will
occur a sudden, disorderly change in Communist China.
Pei thinks the CCP will collapse.
Pei says the regime has survived in many
crises, but it is impossible to continue like this.
Pei believes that with each crisis, the funds
needed for the CCP to maintain stability increase.
This includes expanding surveillance
agencies and internet censorship systems.
Problems of government overstaffing, environmental
pollution, and an aging society remain unresolved.
The middle-class is gradually moving away from the regime.
This is the first time this has occurred in the CCP's history.
This highlights the CCP's crises of legitimacy.
Lin Zixu, current affairs commentator says it is
understandable if the CCP collapses tomorrow.
Lin Zixu: The CCP has committed
too many crimes over the past decades.
Its crimes are being largely exposed via the internet.
All these truths are like sharp swords, stabbing at the
CCP through today's advanced network technologies.
After the European and US financial crisis outbreak in 2008,
the CCP issued printing of large amounts of bank notes.
This was to stimulate economic growth,
in order to get rid of the crisis in China.
However, this made the already
overstretched economic bubble worsen.
Some economists say that because exportation has
declined, private enterprises are frequently bankrupt.
China's economy is heading for a hard landing.
The Standard Chartered Bank estimated that Chinese local
government debt has reached 24 trillion yuan ($3.94 trillion).
The 2012 audit shows that nine capital
cities had a debt ratio exceeding 100%.
The highest debt ratio reached 219.57%.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank says China's shadow banking
has 21 trillion of funds, with some estimates at 40 trillion.
The over heated real estate is a well-known problem.
Ren Zhongdao, financial analyst: Local debts,
shadow banking, and real estate problems are serious.
If the worst thing happens, it certainly
can collapse the CCP in financially.
Xia Ming, Professor in Political Science, City University of
New York says there are four deadly factors for the CCP.
CCP authoritarian dictatorship is against the world
trend; it is also unable to control corruption amongst
officials; more people are awakening and abandoning
the CCP; and China's economic crisis has broken out.
Xia Ming: From its current situation, I speculate
that Xi Jinping won't hold a second term.
In the next five years, the CCP will face a great crisis.
Last month, The Financial Times reported that
Even at the Central Party School there is talk
of the unthinkable: the collapse of the CCP.
More and more people in China and overseas
believe that the CCP has run into a dead end.
Lin Zixu says the CCP shows all the conditions of
collapse, and only needs to hit a breakthrough point.
There is firewood stacked everywhere around
the CCP, and now it's just waiting for a spark.
《神韵》2013世界巡演新亮点